Is Now a Good Time to Start a Trucking Company?

Is Now a Good Time to Start a Trucking Company (Mid-2025)?

 Reasons It Could Be a Good Time:

1. Older Fleets Are Aging Out

Many carriers delayed truck purchases during high-interest and inflation years, and now face aging equipment. There’s opportunity for nimble, well-maintained small fleets to fill gaps in capacity.

2. Freight Market Recovery Signs

After a turbulent few years post-pandemic and a freight recession in 2023–2024, freight volumes are starting to stabilize in 2025. Sectors like retail, construction, and automotive are rebounding — creating more demand for trucking.

3. Fuel Prices Are Stabilizing

Fuel costs have moderated compared to the 2022–2023 spikes, offering better margin predictability.

4. Technology is More Accessible

Today’s cloud-based TMS software and trucking software are more affordable and designed with small fleets and owner-operators in mind. These tools improve load tracking, dispatch, and compliance — helping you operate like a larger fleet without the overhead.

 Risks and Challenges Right Now:

1. Rates Still Below Pre-Pandemic Highs

Spot rates have recovered slightly but are still tight and highly competitive in many lanes. Overcapacity remains in some segments like dry van and reefer.

2. Unstable Market for Larger Fleets

Large national carriers have been hit hard by the extended freight downturn, with multiple rounds of layoffs, terminal closures, and downsizing. Companies like Yellow (2023), Convoy (2024), and others exposed to over-leveraged growth or general freight saw massive disruptions. This instability has created gaps in service — but it also signals market volatility, especially for those without strong financial cushions.

3. High Barrier to Entry

Insurance, maintenance, regulatory costs, and startup capital remain steep. New companies must control costs with tools like trucking software and smart routing to survive lean months.

4. Shipper Power

Many shippers are still favoring established carriers or 3PLs with economies of scale. Winning direct shipper contracts is challenging unless you’re highly specialized.

5. Regulatory Environment

Increased focus on emissions, HOS compliance, and digital reporting means companies must adopt TMS software early to remain compliant and avoid penalties.

Question	Why It Matters
Do you have experience in trucking or logistics?	Knowing the business inside-out reduces costly mistakes.
Do you have at least $30K–$50K in startup capital?	Equipment, insurance, and early cash flow will eat funds quickly.
Can you identify a niche (e.g., hotshot, hazmat, last-mile, reefer)?	Niche carriers survive downturns better than generalists.
Are you ready to hustle for loads or build broker/shipper relationships?	Load boards alone won’t get you far long-term.
Will you use TMS software and digital tools to stay lean?	Leveraging modern systems is critical for small fleet efficiency.

 

Whether you’re starting with one truck or launching a multi-truck operation, investing in trucking software and a reliable TMS software platform can significantly increase your chances of surviving and thriving in today’s volatile freight environment.

Let me know if you’d like: – A startup budget calculator – A guide on the best niches for small carriers – Or a list of trucking software solutions that scale with your business

Tariff Awareness are Key

• Freight recession prolonged. Recent tariffs (up to 25–50% on steel, aluminum, vehicles, and duties up to 145% on Chinese goods) are expected to extend the current freight recession into 2026
• Port slowdowns. Ports like L.A. and Long Beach have seen imports plunge by a third, threatening thousands of trucking jobs and significantly reducing container volumes
• Layoffs coming. Firms like Apollo predict mass layoffs within trucking and retail by summer due to collapsing freight demand.

Short-Term Opportunities 🔍

• Pre-tariff rush: Some carriers saw spikes in freight as shippers front-loaded goods ahead of tariff deadlines

• Driver demand: Temporary period of more loads and bonuses, especially for cross-border or nearshoring routes drivebigtrucks.com.

Major Challenges

1. Persistent downturn: Freight rates are low, capacity is high (up ~18% since 2020), and recovery isn’t expected soon

2. Equipment hurdles: 25% tariffs on vehicles from Canada and Mexico may raise truck costs ~9%, depressing new truck demand

3. Supply chain constraints: Parts for repairs may be scarce or costly, with some fleets waiting months for components .

4. Policy unpredictability: Shifting tariff policies make planning difficult—offsetting investments in trucks, facilities, or staffing

Is It a Good Time to Start?

• For a small or independent operation? The macro has three red flags: low freight volumes, elevated operating costs, and parts/equipment uncertainty.

• For an established operator with capital and niche focus (e.g. cross-border, specialty freight)? You might find pockets of demand—especially in nearshoring logistics. But these are exceptions in a generally weak market.

• If you’re thinking of scaling? Probably not wise yet. The industry downturn is deep, recession signals are mounting, and vessel/container flow is down sharply .

Strategic Considerations

1. Watch policy direction. Supreme Court actions could soften tariffs later, affecting demand cycles .

2. Explore niche or lean models. Focus on under-served lanes (e.g., regional, cross-border, last-mile) rather than broad national hauling.

3. Hold off heavy investment until signs of freight recovery emerge—monitor port volumes, carrier earnings, and trade-data closely.

4. Consider joining a fleet (or working as an independent contractor) to build experience without carrying the capital burden outright.

Conclusion

Right now, the trucking industry is in a downturn, with tariffs exerting downward pressure on freight demand, rates, and equipment costs. Though there have been brief surges from tariff deadlines, overall volumes remain depressed and layoffs predicted. Starting a business under these conditions is high-risk, especially without a clear niche, sufficient capitalization, and flexibility to ride out ongoing volatility.